Many experts are predicting a housing crash. What is the data telling us?
Remember when finding a house for sale felt like searching for a unicorn? Well, those days have been slowly improving, but it looks like we might be hitting a speed bump. The steady climb in available homes is starting to cool off, and honestly, it’s got everyone wondering what’s next.
Here’s what’s happening: we’re seeing the usual late-summer slowdown where fewer people decide to put their homes on the market. It’s totally normal – who wants to deal with showings when they’re trying to enjoy their last few weeks of vacation, right? But this year feels a bit different because we were just starting to get used to having actual choices when house hunting.
The numbers tell an interesting story. This week, available homes crept up slightly to about 860,000, compared to last year when we only had around 677,000 options during the same time. That’s still way better than where we were, but the pace of improvement is definitely slowing down.
What’s really fascinating is that this is happening even though mortgage rates are still pretty brutal – hanging around 6.8%. You’d think high rates would push more inventory onto the market as sellers get nervous, but that’s not what we’re seeing yet.
The big question mark hanging over everything? What happens if rates actually drop or if they shoot up past 7%? Both scenarios could shake things up in completely different ways. Lower rates might actually reduce inventory as more buyers jump in and snatch up what’s available. Higher rates could flood the market with homes from sellers who decide they can’t wait any longer.
For anyone thinking about buying, this might be one of those “strike while the iron is hot” moments. The selection we have now could be as good as it gets for a while, especially once we hit fall and winter when even fewer people typically list their homes.
The silver lining? We’re still in a much better place than we were during the pandemic craziness when finding any house to buy felt impossible.